{"id":1177,"date":"2017-02-03T07:43:18","date_gmt":"2017-02-03T12:43:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/?p=1177"},"modified":"2017-02-23T07:32:29","modified_gmt":"2017-02-23T12:32:29","slug":"the-math-i-should-not-have-done","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/2017\/02\/the-math-i-should-not-have-done\/","title":{"rendered":"The Math I Should Not Have Done"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\">There have been <a href=\"http:\/\/www.haaretz.com\/us-news\/1.769311\">more than 60 bomb threats targeting U.S. Jewish Community Centers in the past month<\/a>, more than 30 of them since the inauguration alone (i.e., in the last twelve days).<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Most of these have been domestic in origin (I have that from several sources, include a JCC security head who was told this at an info session with the Detroit FBI office this week).<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1178\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1178\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1178\" src=\"http:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/dailystormer-300x241.jpg\" alt=\"just another funny little joke, i guess\" width=\"300\" height=\"241\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/dailystormer-300x241.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/dailystormer.jpg 697w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 85vw, 300px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1178\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">just another funny little joke, i guess<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"p1\">That number sounds bad\u2014but you don&#8217;t really have a benchmark for this, right?<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>I mean, you ask yourself &#8220;Well, how often do folks call bomb threats into YMCAs or non-Jewish daycares?&#8221;, and the answer is &#8220;Basically zero&#8221;\u2014so that sounds bad.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>But then you poke around online, and find that U.S. schools get over a thousand bomb threats every year (in fact, I used to teach at an alternative school, and one of my students\u2014a very sweet and peaceful kid when I knew him\u2014had been kicked out of his last school for making a bomb threat).<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>And how often do schools get bombed?<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>(Actually, bombs are placed at schools more than you think: According to some <a href=\"http:\/\/www.popcenter.org\/problems\/bomb_threats\/\">old ATF numbers, nearly 100 devces are placed each year in schools<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">So I started poking around the <a href=\"https:\/\/ucr.fbi.gov\/hate-crime\/\">FBI UCR (Universal Crime Reporting) Hate Crime stats<\/a>.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Here&#8217;s a representative sample of annual anti-Jewish<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> \u201cintimidation\u201d crime tallies (&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/ucr.fbi.gov\/nibrs\/nibrs-user-manual\">intimidation<\/a>&#8221; is the UCR category that includes, but is not limited to, bomb threats).<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>You&#8217;ll note a predominantly downward trend:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\"> 1996 had 363 such offenses\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\"> 1997: 387<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\"> 1998: 380<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\"> <b>1999: 420<\/b><\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\"> 2007: 201<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\"> 2008: 201<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\"> 2010: 201<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\"> 2011: 187<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\"> 2012: 87<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\"> 2013: 152<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\"> 2014: 93<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\"> 2015: 114<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span class=\"s2\">(My numbers above are spotty, owing both to gaps in the FBI stats and because I just can\u2019t dedicate too much time to picking around UCR reports tonight.)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\">I&#8217;ve emphasized 1999 for three reasons:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\">It is the peak of the available numbers by a significant margin.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\">It&#8217;s the year of the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Los_Angeles_Jewish_Community_Center_shooting\">Los Angeles Jewish Community Center shooting committed by\u00a0Buford O. Furrow<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\">If January 2017 is indicative, then we can expect 600 bomb threats this year.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>And if bomb threats generally correlate to the volume and volatility of anti-Semitic hate floating around out there . . . well, you can do the math.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There have been more than 60 bomb threats targeting U.S. Jewish Community Centers in the past month, more than 30 of them since the inauguration alone (i.e., in the last twelve days).\u00a0 Most of these have been domestic in origin (I have that from several sources, include a JCC security head who was told this &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/2017\/02\/the-math-i-should-not-have-done\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The Math I Should Not Have Done&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_share_on_mastodon":"1"},"categories":[11],"tags":[30,83,36,53,41,43],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1177"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1177"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1177\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1189,"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1177\/revisions\/1189"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}