{"id":2321,"date":"2020-03-02T12:42:00","date_gmt":"2020-03-02T17:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/?p=2321"},"modified":"2020-03-02T11:51:58","modified_gmt":"2020-03-02T16:51:58","slug":"coronavirus-covid-19-solid-facts-reasonable-fears-sensible-measures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-covid-19-solid-facts-reasonable-fears-sensible-measures\/","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus (COVID-19): Solid Facts, Reasonable Fears, Sensible Measures &#x1f9a0;&#x1f9df;&#x200d;&#x2640;&#xfe0f;&#x2623;&#xfe0f;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong><em>(This is a version of something I drafted for my local faith community, where I&#8217;m active in safety\/security. Faith communities offer lots of programs for the very young, very old, and very vulnerable\u2014and we tend to crowd lots of folks into one room; disease transmission is more of a concern than it might be for a workplace full of healthy young adults who can afford and access health care services.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Folks are worried about Coronavirus (i.e., \u201cCOVID-19\u201d)\u2014and this isn\u2019t unfounded (see the &#8220;REASONABLE COVID-19 CONCERNS&#8221; sub-section for details).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While there are good reasons for concern, there are also very basic steps we can all take to reduce both the risk of infection and the severity of any disruption to our lives should an outbreak hit nearby. \u00a0Please feel free to share any portion (or all) of the following info with your people. \u00a0<em>Thanks!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>REASONABLE COVID-19 CONCERNS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As of this morning (March 2), there have been two reported Coronavirus (i.e., \u201cCOVID-19\u201d) deaths in Washington state. \u00a0Given <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>what we know about the disease (e.g.,\u00a0<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/\">https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/<\/a>\u00a0)<\/li><li>its gestation period (~2 weeks)<\/li><li>the currently understood mortality rate (~2%)<\/li><li>how it\u2019s transmitted (airborne droplets from coughs and sneezes)<\/li><li>and our best guesses at it\u2019s transmission rate (or \u201cR<strong><sub class=\"\">0<\/sub><\/strong>\u201d;\u00a0current estimate is that COVID-19 has an R0 of \u201c2\u201d, which means each infected person will infect ~2 others), <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>this all tends to imply that the disease has been spreading in WA for ~6-8 weeks, and there are hundreds of cases there now (I heard an estimate in the thousands on NPR this morning, but didn\u2019t catch the source, and so take it with a grain of salt).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the one hand, this is obviously concerning: COVID-19 is ~20x more deadly than the seasonal flu (which kills tens of thousands annually). \u00a0On the other hand, a 2% mortality rate implies a 98% (or higher) survival rate, and an R0 of 2 isn\u2019t great, but it also isn\u2019t a <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Night_Surf\">Stephen King story<\/a>: COVID-19 is more contagious than seasonal flu (which has an R0 of ~1.3, I think) but much less so than measles (R0 ~15) or whooping cough (R0 ~5). (Incidentally, all of those are\u00a0<em>also<\/em>\u00a0primarily transmitted through\u00a0airborne\u00a0droplets).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Usually, diseases like COVID-19 are most dangerous to the very young and very old. \u00a0Based on limited studies in China, it appears that even the very, very young have no trouble fending off COVID-19. \u00a0That\u2019s great! \u00a0But that means the mortality rate for COVID-19 falls hardest on the elderly and those with existing health problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>REASONABLE COVID-19 MEASURES<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow\">\n<ul><li> <strong>ENCOURAGE\u00a0HAND WASHING!<\/strong>\u00a0I know it seems silly to say, but that\u2019s the Number One way we can protect ourselves and our community members (especially the infirm and our elders). \u00a0Make sure to review this with any kids you keep around; they chronically short-change hand washing. The young aren\u2019t at very high risk of dying from COVID-19\u2014but are excellent candidates for spreading it. \u00a0(Also, as someone who regularly uses public men\u2019s room, I\u2019ll level with you: Maybe also review this with adults you know.) <ol><li><strong>Soap and water beats hand-sanitizer every time!<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0 <\/li><li>Wash hands\u00a0<strong>with soap\u00a0<\/strong>for at least\u00a0<strong>20 seconds<\/strong>\u00a0(i.e., sing \u201cHappy Birthday to Me\u201d twice while washing hands). <\/li><li>Make sure to\u00a0<strong>scrub between fingers<\/strong>, down the\u00a0<strong>backs of the hands<\/strong>, and\u00a0<strong>focus on the finger tips<\/strong>. <\/li><li><strong>Dry vigorously with paper towel<\/strong>\u2014the friction does a lot of the work of removing pathogens. <\/li><li><strong>Wash hands upon returning home<\/strong>\u00a0from school\/work, before and after meals, after you cough or sneeze, and any time you\u2019ve been touching something folks likely coughed on (e.g., shared computers\/tablets, ATMs, public handrails, etc.) <\/li><li>Failing all else,\u00a0<strong>hand\u00a0sanitizer\u00a0is better than nothing.\u00a0<\/strong><a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worrellcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/how-to@2x.png\">Proper use<\/a>\u00a0us just like soap &amp; water: Cover hands, scrub for 20 seconds, focus on getting between fingers\/down backs\/and rubbing fingertips. <\/li><\/ol><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"320\" height=\"240\" src=\"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/vampire-cough.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2323\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/vampire-cough.jpg 320w, https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/vampire-cough-300x225.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 320px) 85vw, 320px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<ul><li>\u00a0<strong>Cough into the elbow crook<\/strong>: At school my kids were taught that this was called the \u201c<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/i.imgur.com\/vLM7twP.jpg\">vampire cough<\/a>\u201d; I love that! <\/li><li><strong>Plan for school closures<\/strong>: It\u2019s gonna happen, just like snow days. Be ready\u2014and be ready for your day care to be closed, too. \u00a0Make advance plans with work to telecommute, have backup helpers in place, and so on. \u00a0Make sure your Netflix and Disney+ subscriptions are paid up. Invest in a game system. <\/li><li><strong>Take care of yourself<\/strong>: Disease strikes the stressed, tired, and weary. \u00a0Drink plenty of water, get plenty of exercise (go on a walk before the ice returns!), and get plenty of sleep.<\/li><\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"638\" height=\"638\" src=\"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/proper-handwashing-2x2-1-638.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2325\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/proper-handwashing-2x2-1-638.jpg 638w, https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/proper-handwashing-2x2-1-638-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/proper-handwashing-2x2-1-638-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"806\" height=\"808\" src=\"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/how-handsanitize.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2326\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/how-handsanitize.png 806w, https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/how-handsanitize-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/how-handsanitize-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/how-handsanitize-768x770.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>FURTHER COVID-19 RESOURCES<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul><li> An automated, constantly updated aggregator of info on COVID-19:\u00a0<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/\">https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/<\/a> <\/li><li>NPR\u2019s \u201cUp First\u201d podcast did a great episode covering the current questions and best preparations. Give it a listen today: &#8220;Life Kit Coronavirus 101: What You Need To Know To\u00a0Prepare And Prevent\u201d:\u00a0<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/02\/28\/810339510\/life-kit-coronavirus-101-what-you-need-to-know-to-prepare-and-prevent\">https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/02\/28\/810339510\/life-kit-coronavirus-101-what-you-need-to-know-to-prepare-and-prevent<\/a>\u00a0 3) <\/li><li>More info on \u201cR<strong><sub class=\"\">0<\/sub><\/strong>\u201d (transmission rates): \u00a0<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Basic_reproduction_number\">https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Basic_reproduction_number<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is a version of something I drafted for my local faith community, where I&#8217;m active in safety\/security. Faith communities offer lots of programs for the very young, very old, and very vulnerable\u2014and we tend to crowd lots of folks into one room; disease transmission is more of a concern than it might be for &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-covid-19-solid-facts-reasonable-fears-sensible-measures\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Coronavirus (COVID-19): Solid Facts, Reasonable Fears, Sensible Measures &#x1f9a0;&#x1f9df;&#x200d;&#x2640;&#xfe0f;&#x2623;&#xfe0f;&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_share_on_mastodon":"1"},"categories":[11,8],"tags":[471,468,33,470,77,474,472,473,119,43],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2321"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2321"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2321\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2334,"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2321\/revisions\/2334"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.davideriknelson.com\/sbsb\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}